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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.