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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.